Game Theory Of Financial Crime: Policy Takeaways From Bitcoin

Significant shifts are underway successful the ecosystem of illicit actors utilizing cryptocurrency. According to a 2023 report by TRM Labs, Bitcoin is nary longer the plus of prime for criminals.

The study states, “The multi-chain epoch has had a sweeping interaction connected the organisation of illicit crypto measurement arsenic a whole, wherever Bitcoin’s stock plummeted from 97% successful 2016 to 19% successful 2022. In 2016, 2 thirds of crypto hack measurement was connected Bitcoin; successful 2022, it accounted for conscionable nether 3%, with Ethereum (68%) and Binance Smart Chain (19%) dominating the field. And portion Bitcoin was the exclusive currency for violent financing successful 2016, by 2022 it was each but replaced by assets connected the TRON blockchain, with 92%.”

Ramifications Of the Shift

Clearly, this turns the adage of Bitcoin being synonymous with transgression activity, connected its head.

Since inception, Bitcoin has functioned arsenic a Schelling Point owed to its web effect, marketplace dominance and liquidity, making it a earthy prime successful cryptofinance.

(In Game Theory parlance, a Schelling Point is simply a earthy solution successful situations wherever aggregate parties indispensable marque decisions without nonstop communication. These points are intuitively obvious, often relying connected shared expectations oregon communal knowledge.)

However, present it seems that determination is an ongoing separation of equilibria with atrocious actors opting for a antithetic constituent of convergence.

Policy Takeaways

This determination offers immoderate cardinal learnings from a argumentation perspective.

It highlights the request for policymakers to intimately survey circumstantial assets and blockchains that are presently being favored by illicit actors and instrumentality due action. More importantly, it provides an opportune infinitesimal to regenerate the current, generic position connected integer assets with a much nuanced one, portion shaping argumentation narratives connected transgression usage.

Case successful point, successful the ongoing treatment connected usage of cryptoassets successful panic financing, it often gets missed that Hamas has successful fact stopped accepting Bitcoin donations, to support its sponsors from being unveiled.

But astir importantly, this displacement of illicit concern distant from Bitcoin, is the archetypal ever documented lawsuit of large transgression displacement successful the satellite of cryptoassets. It sheds airy connected the fluid quality of Financial Crime arsenic it adapts to the way of slightest resistance.

Perspectives From Game Theory

Consequently, a game-theoretic lens (with the players being - merchandise devs, regulators, bully and atrocious actors) enables a holistic and nuanced presumption of the space. We tin spot that successful specified a setting, interplay of autarkic actions and perspectives, generates myriad scenarios arsenic the strategy is excessively intertwined for immoderate acceptable of players to power outcomes lone by themselves.

A game-theoretic presumption of illicit concern expounds the request to measurement into the transgression caput to foretell adjacent steps and hole accordingly. Policy making to combat amerciable money flows, is typically retroactive with atrocious actors making the archetypal fewer moves, which are past studied arsenic emerging risks to accordingly trade regulations. However, with the abstraction of integer assets evolving astatine an exponential pace, we bash not person the luxury of pursuing this whack-a-mole attack (which happens to beryllium the norm successful designing Traditional Finance regulations).

The ongoing question of transgression displacement distant from Bitcoin, highlights the necessity to limb policymakers with predictive systems that forecast aboriginal patterns of illicit money flows. Such an attack volition vastly minimize effect clip to caller threats.

Counter-crime Initiatives

Lessons from Bitcoin’s changing usage, tin besides assistance counter-crime professionals grasp chiseled features of organized transgression syndicates. Case successful point, transgression rings inactive reliant connected Bitcoin would signify a deficiency of agility successful leadership. Additionally, presumption connected an ‘agility spectrum’ tin assistance infer further actionable insights astir immoderate syndicate, specified its level of resourcefulness and method expertise. This tin besides assistance instrumentality enforcement successful sizing the unsocial effort required successful combating each transgression ring. Case successful point, transgression syndicates which pioneered the displacement distant from Bitcoin, and are (consequently) up of the curve, would beryllium operating astatine a comparatively higher level of ingenuity, portion continuously adapting to gaffe done the cracks.

Concluding Thoughts

The power of fiscal transgression distant from Bitcoin, sheds airy connected the request of a much nuanced attack to curating apt and dynamic regulatory and argumentation frameworks for integer assets and blockchains. It besides highlights the dangers of applying wide strokes to the full spectrum of cryptofinance, erstwhile it comes to argumentation debates connected transgression usage.

This is simply a impermanent station by Debanjan Chatterjee. Opinions expressed are wholly their ain and bash not needfully bespeak those of BTC Inc oregon Bitcoin Magazine.